What Are the Chances That Trump's Gaza Strip Proposal Will Succeed?
Hamas's limited endorsement toward the US president's Gaza plan last Friday has been met with worldwide approval and is the nearest Israel and Hamas have come in two years to ending the conflict within the Gaza Strip.
How Close Are We to an Agreement?
The Palestinian faction's qualified backing of the Trump plan marks the nearest delegates have reached over the last several months toward a full end to the war in Gaza. However, they are still distant from a settlement.
Trump's 20-point initiative to stop the war stipulates that the group free all hostages over 72 hours, surrender ruling power to a cross-border council headed by the US president, and lay down its weapons. As compensation, Israeli forces would step-by-step withdraw its forces from the Gaza Strip and return over 1,000 inmates.
The deal would also bring a surge of humanitarian aid to Gaza, parts of which are experiencing famine, and recovery financing to the Palestinian territory, that has been almost entirely decimated.
The organization gave consent regarding three clauses: the freeing of all hostages, the surrendering of authority and the pullout of Israeli forces from Gaza. The group said the remaining parts of the deal would have to be negotiated alongside additional Palestinian factions, since it forms a component of a “collective national stance”.
Effectively, this means the group seeks additional talks on the thornier parts of the Trump deal, specifically the request for its disarmament, and a solid schedule on Israel’s withdrawal.
When and Where Will Negotiations Happen?
Delegates have traveled to Cairo to finalize details to close the divide between Israel and Hamas.
Discussions will start on Monday and it is anticipated to produce conclusions in the coming days, regardless of the outcome.
The US president posted an image of a map showing Gaza on Saturday night depicting the line up to which Israeli forces ought to pull back stating that if the group consents to it, the truce would start immediately. The US president is keen to conclude the conflict as it comes its second anniversary and prior to the Nobel committee announces the recipient of the peace prize on 10 October, which is a widely known focus of his.
Benjamin Netanyahu stated a deal to bring Israeli hostages home should preferably take place soon.
What Gaps Remain?
Both Hamas and Israel have hedged their bets heading into the talks.
The group has repeatedly refused to lay down its arms during previous talks. It has provided no indication whether its position has changed on this, despite it principally agrees to the US proposal, with qualifications. Trump and Israel have made it clear that there is little wiggle room regarding the disarmament demand and are resolved to pin Hamas down with binding language in any plan moving forward.
The militant faction also said it accepted handing over authority over Gaza to an expert-led governing force, as specified in the US proposal. But, in a statement, the militant group clarified it would agree to a Gaza-based technocratic governing body, not the international body proposed by Trump in its plan.
The Israeli government has also sought to keep the matter of its troop withdrawal unclear. Just hours following the announcement of Trump’s plan in a joint press conference in the US capital recently, Netanyahu released a recording reassuring the Israeli public that soldiers would remain in most of Gaza.
Last Saturday evening, the Israeli prime minister reiterated that troops would stay in Gaza, stating that captives would be released as the Israeli military would remain within Gaza's interior.
The prime minister's stance appears to conflict against the requirement in Trump’s plan that Israeli forces fully withdraw from the territory. The group will demand reassurances that Israeli forces will completely leave and that if Hamas surrenders its arms, Israeli troops will not return to the strip.
Mediators must bridge these differences, obtaining clear, strict language regarding giving up weapons from Hamas. They must also show to Hamas that Israel will genuinely pull out from Gaza and that there are global assurances that will compel the Israeli state to comply to the terms of the agreement.
The disagreements could be reconciled, and the US will undoubtedly pressure both parties to achieve a deal. Nevertheless, the talks have got close to a deal previously suddenly collapsing multiple times over the last 24 months, leaving both parties wary of declaring victory before pen is on paper.